Cybersecurity predictions warn of AI, quantum threats ahead

The predictions made by cybersecurity consultants and researchers at NCC Group concerning the evolving landscape of technology and security encompass various domains including AI, quantum computing, and cyber warfare.

Alejandro Rivas-Vasquez, Global Head of Digital Forensics and Incident Response, highlighted several concerning trends. "The evolving use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) for offensive cyber tactics, combined with escalating geopolitical tensions across the globe, makes it increasingly likely that we will witness another NotPetya-like cyber event," he forewarned.

"NotPetya showed how tools like EternalBlue, which was originally developed by intelligence agencies, could be weaponized to cause widespread damage. While the original intended target was Ukraine the impact ultimately spread indiscriminately. Geopolitical tensions now are higher and more widespread across different regions presenting an ever-greater threat. The global reliance on digital systems and cloud-based services has deepened since the COVID-19 pandemic, while supply chain vulnerabilities have grown significantly.

"With our level of interconnectivity being so much greater now, the collateral damage from attacks having unintended consequences outside of conflict zones should be expected. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning can enhance the speed and precision of cyberattacks and allegedly nation states are already developing offensive capabilities using these technologies.

"The combination of the effectiveness of such attacks, the widespread consequences they have and applying the lessons learned from NotPetya, makes this prediction highly plausible."

Bobbie Walker, Managing Consultant, shared insights into the future of cybersecurity related to implantable technology, noting, "In the next five years, cyber security will extend beyond protecting digital systems to safeguarding people directly through implantable technology. Neural interfaces, bio-augmentation, authentication chips, and advanced medical implants will revolutionise our interaction with technology, but also introduce significant risks."

Walker cautioned against potential abuses, "Hackers could exploit neural interfaces to control actions or manipulate perceptions, leading to cognitive manipulation and breaches of personal autonomy. Continuous monitoring of health and behavioral data through implants raises substantial privacy concerns, with risks of misuse by malicious actors or invasive government surveillance.

"To mitigate these risks, new frameworks bridging technology, healthcare, and privacy regulations will be essential. Standards for 'digital bioethics' and ISO standards for bio-cyber security will help define safe practices for integrating technology into the human body while addressing ethical dilemmas."

Product Manager Alessia Oliveri remarked on developments in quantum computing and related cybersecurity implications. "The race to develop quantum-safe approaches and algorithms will intensify, with significant efforts directed towards quantum-capable decryption. This battle will shape the future of cyber security, as both defensive and offensive capabilities evolve rapidly," Oliveri predicted. Additionally, she expressed concerns about "dark-AI marketplaces" where "technology being leveraged for dual purposes, automating attacks, scams, and threats" poses severe challenges for cybersecurity professionals.

Reflecting on the advancements in brain-computer interfaces, Andy Davis, Global Research Director, stated that "as brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) become more sophisticated, the protection of neural data will emerge as a critical aspect of cyber security. This will involve developing advanced encryption and access control mechanisms to prevent unauthorized access to individuals' thoughts, emotions, and memories. Regulatory frameworks will likely evolve to address the ethical and privacy concerns associated with neural data protection."

Deputy Director of Commercial Research, Jon Renshaw, expressed concern over AI-driven ransomware and quantum computing's impact on cryptography. "A breakthrough in quantum computing could lead to the development of quantum computers capable of breaking current cryptographic algorithms. This scenario is akin to the Y2K bug, where we know a transition to post-quantum cryptography is necessary, but the exact timing is uncertain," he explained.

Dr. Liz James, Managing Security Consultant, focused on vulnerabilities in vehicle fleets and cloud systems. She predicted an increase in "cyber attacks will increasingly target vehicle fleets and cloud vulnerabilities, shifting focus from organizational assets to product fleet management systems." Josh Waller, Cyber Security Consultant, foresees industrial operators "beginning to scale back the integration of OT, ICS, and SCADA systems with broader corporate networks" to guard against evolving threats.

Abhijeet Udas, Executive Principal Consultant, forecasted an uptick in attacks on 5G devices, asserting that "the use of connected cars in cyberattacks or other malicious activities could have catastrophic consequences."

Senior Advisor Paul Vlissidis predicted a significant data breach due to the adoption of generative AI, serving as "a wake-up call, highlighting the urgent need for robust AI security measures." Kerby Bacotot, Associate Technical Architect, echoed concerns about AI's potential for exploitation, which "will likely lead to stricter regulations defining the boundaries and limits of these technologies."

David Brauchler, Technical Director, anticipated new challenges with mainstream AI and envisaged that "agenic AI will emerge, capable of interpreting user instructions and executing actions autonomously," which "will lead to new security challenges."

Lastly, Ray Robinson, Director of OT, commented on the convergence of safety and cyber risks assessments. "Security Operations Centers (SOCs) will merge OT and IT threat and vulnerability monitoring, creating a unified approach to security." Robinson emphasised the convergence of physical and cyber security measures to safeguard assets and information comprehensively.