Aurora launches Philippines battery forecast add-on

Aurora Energy Research has launched a Philippines Flexible Energy Forecast add-on for battery storage investors and developers, as the country requires larger prospective renewable energy projects to include storage.

The new subscription product is designed to assess the investment case for flexible assets, including standalone batteries and storage systems co-located with renewable projects. It provides half-hourly forecasts for electricity and reserve market prices in the Philippines through to 2060.

The launch follows a policy change by the Philippine Department of Energy. In February 2026, it required prospective variable renewable energy projects of 10 MW and above to include energy storage equivalent to at least 20% of installed capacity.

The rule has sharpened focus on whether battery projects can generate returns over long operating lives, particularly in a market where wholesale electricity prices and reserve revenues can change over time.

Aurora said the service combines project assumptions with its central market scenario to analyse standard investment cases. It also includes sensitivity analysis to test how different market conditions and battery specifications could affect expected returns.

The forecasts cover the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market across Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, as well as reserve market prices for Regulation Up and Down, Fast Contingency Raise and Delayed Contingency Raise.

Policy backdrop

The Philippines has been expanding renewable energy development, but the storage requirement adds a new cost and design consideration for developers. For solar and wind projects above the 10 MW threshold, storage is now part of the development equation from the outset.

That increases the importance of forecasting for investors, lenders and developers assessing whether battery systems can earn enough from energy trading and reserve services to justify their capital costs. Revenue projections for storage projects often depend on assumptions about price volatility, the future generation mix and the amount of competing flexible capacity in the market.

Battery storage economics also vary according to technical choices such as project sizing and whether a battery operates on a standalone basis or alongside a renewable plant. In a market with multiple islands and regional price differences, locational signals add another layer of complexity.

Market detail

The half-hourly structure of the forecast reflects the operational reality of battery assets, which respond to short-duration changes in demand, supply and system balancing requirements. By modelling both spot power prices and reserve markets, the service is intended to give users a fuller picture of potential revenue streams.

The subscription is available as an add-on to Aurora's existing Power & Renewables Market Forecast service. It includes two Philippines Flexible Energy Forecast reports a year, published in April and October, along with an Excel data book and access to Aurora's research team for questions and answers.

Aurora, founded in 2013 and headquartered in Oxford, provides power market forecasting and analytics to energy sector clients. It serves more than 1,000 clients and operates from 18 offices across Europe, the Americas, Asia and Australia.

"The viability of a battery storage project depends on how market conditions develop over the lifetime of a project. Future price volatility, the build-out of other flexible technologies and choices around project sizing can all influence expected returns. Our Philippines Flexible Energy Forecast gives investors and developers a clearer view of these factors, helping them assess different investment cases and understand how changes in the market could affect project performance," said Patrick Tan, Head of Wider APAC at Aurora Energy Research.